Patients who exhibit high systemic inflammation after cardiac surgery may benefit most from pre-emptive anti-inflammatory treatments. In this secondary analysis (n = 813) of the randomised, double-blind Intraoperative High-Dose Dexamethasone for Cardiac Surgery trial, we set out to develop an inflammation risk prediction model and assess whether patients at higher risk benefit from a single intraoperative dose of dexamethasone (1 mg/kg). Inflammation risk before surgery was quantified from a linear regression model developed in the placebo arm, relating preoperatively available covariates to peak postoperative C-reactive protein. The primary endpoint was the interaction between inflammation risk and the peak postoperative C-reactive protein reduction associated with dexamethasone treatment. The impact of dexamethasone on the main clinical outcome (a composite of death, myocardial infarction, stroke, renal failure, or respiratory failure within 30 days) was also explored in relation to inflammation risk. Preoperatively available covariates explained a minority of peak postoperative C-reactive protein variation and were not suitable for clinical application (R² = 0.058, P = 0.012); C-reactive protein before surgery (excluded above 10 mg/L) was the most predictive covariate (P < 0.001). The anti-inflammatory effect of dexamethasone increased as the inflammation risk increased (–0.689 mg/L per unit predicted peak C-reactive protein, P = 0.002 for interaction). No treatment-effect heterogeneity was detected for the main clinical outcome (P = 0.167 for interaction). Overall, risk predictions from a model of inflammation after cardiac surgery were associated with the degree of peak postoperative C-reactive protein reduction derived from dexamethasone treatment. Future work should explore the impact of this phenomenon on clinical outcomes in larger surgical populations.